Ismu Foundation, Rome, 20 may 2014
By using the most recent data from llo (for activities and gender indicators for the last decade) and UN data (for demographics structures and gender for the last decade), the research team of the ISMU Foundation coordinated by professor Blangiardo has initially analysed the occupational and demographical dynamics of each single African countries. The team identified demographic surplus as a result of the comparison between inflow and outflow of local labour market. We analysed the relationship between demographics surplus of each country and the number of inflows in each country member of the EU-28 by using the results and previous experience of each African countries and the migration flows to EU-28 (documents formulated by using Eurostat data and national statistics institute). This relationship is expressed in terms of a coefficient which express the migration inflows at the origin “i” and at the destination “j” for each surplus unity observed at the origin “i”. This result is calculated by using mean during the recent interval of 10 years.
To establish a model which predict future flows we primarily assume that previous estimated relationships are constant. Then they are applied on the demographics surplus that is the combination of the data llo and UN predict for the future (hypothesis A).
Then (hypothesis B) we correct and model according to time previous estimations taking into account the the estimates of the ratio between GDP per capita in the country and the GDP per capita in the European Union.The data used are extrapolation from the most recent estimation of the World Bank. In different terms we reach two predictions: one from hypothesis A which can be defined as supposed to invariance between the gap African countries and UE-28 GDP; one from hypothesis B, which can be defined as determined by demographic surplus corrected for the variation of the ratio between per capita incomes growth in country of origin and growth of income per capita in the European Union.
According to hypothesis A, the migration flows from Africa to European Union are estimated to be 350 thousands every year with a certain constancy till 2025 and a relative increase between 2026 and 2030 reaching 380 thousands units per year.
According to hypothesis B, migration flow is on the other hand estimated until the 5 years period 2021-2025 slightly more than 300 thousands units per year, with an increase of 220 thousands units between 2026-2030.
According to both hypotheses, however, the “expulsion” pressure of citizens from North Africa to the EU-28 will decrease over time, while the migration flow from the central-southern mainland will increase more than the decrease from the North.
In particular, the Moroccans will always be the first group of African migrants to the EU, but the number of migrants will drop from the current flow of 94 thousand units per year to approximately 68 thousand in 2026-2030. The number of migrants from Tunisia and Algeria will also decrease significantly, respectively, from the current 13 thousand to 4 thousand units per year and by 11 thousand to 2 thousand. Moreover from North Africa, where we have a modest flows from Sudan and Libya, the number of migrants from Egypt will increase (with about 11 thousand units per year). In any case, the expatriating pressure from the North Africa will exceed for intensity the one coming from sub-Saharan Africa. The vibrant sub-Saharan demographics in local labor markets, not yet ready to represent migrations youth streams, are likely to produce surplus population increasingly attracted by the prospect of migration.
It is estimated that currently flows to the EU-28 are slightly over 130 thousand a year from North Africa and just over 170 thousand from the centre-south in the first five-year period from 2026 to 2030. It is likely that the former flows will decrease to below 90 thousand inputs per year while the latter will be nearly 240 thousand units. Therefore, behind the still massive – but declining – flow from Morocco (strong to Spain, but also high towards Italy and France), it will fade significantly from those of Tunisia and Algeria and grow those from countries in sub-Saharan Africa, especially from Nigeria (from the current 22 thousand units per year in Europe with an average of 28 thousand in 2026-2030). in Senegal (from 19 thousand to 27 thousand per year), Somalia (currently less than 9 thousand to 20 thousand in 2026 to 2030), Cameroon (from 11 thousand to 16 thousand), South Africa (in this case a decrease of approximately 3 thousand units per year starting from current 14 thousand, almost all to the United Kingdom) and the Gambia (less than 6 thousand to 11 thousand, of which more than half to Spain and also caused a sharp increase from estimates on the dynamics of income worse than those hypothesised in the European Union).
Behind these countries, in the period 2026-2030 the flow from Ghana is likely to be more than 10 thousand units per year, but it will be joined on the values almost similar to that of Mali, which will grow substantially from the current inputs about 7 thousand in the European Union. The migrant flow will also increase, similar to the Ivorian migrant flow (with flows from the current 7 thousand per year to about 9 thousand). Many African countries will start migrating towards Europe like Guinea (which flows reach 9 thousand units annually, from the current 5 thousand inputs), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (from 6 thousand to 8 thousand), Zimbabwe (which will reach 7 thousand numbers of inputs per year, twice the current) and Kenya (from 4 thousand to 6 thousand). In 2026-2030 flows from Tunisians and Algerians will decrease respectively by 70% (to 4 thousand per year) and 80% (only 2 thousand per year).
In general, according to the hypothesis B (as mentioned before it takes into account possible developments with respect to income), Spain centralizes today 76 thousands cases, or a quarter of the migration flows of the European Union. It seems oriented in the first instance to fall below the 70 thousand units per year in 2021-2025 before returning to around 75 thousand per year in the next five-year period from 2026 to 2030. In the latter period, however, it will “only” be about in 40% of cases of Moroccans input, compared to 60% of current incidence. Algerians flows will collapse, Senegalese flows increase inputs (up to an average of 11 thousand units per year in 2026-2030), as from Gambia (up to more than 6 thousand per year, more than twice today), Nigeria (almost 6 thousand), Mali (over 5 thousand) and Guinea (about 3 thousand).
In second place in Europe, France will fall slightly from the first country for current flows of about 67 thousand units near the threshold of 60 thousand, then recovered to a limit of 65 thousand units per year in 2026-2030. Taken together, Spain and France centralize today, though decreasing, and will centralize in the future nearly half of migration flows from Africa; a proportion that rises to three-fourths if you consider the United Kingdom and Italy as destination of migrations.
The number of African flows towards UK will grow from the current 45 thousand to over 55 thousand a year, overtaking Italy that oscillate instead always around 50 thousand entries. Afterwards, not far from other countries and despite a slight increase in the migration flows over time, Germany still ranks fifth in Europe, with flows of approximately 25 thousand units annually in Africa, just ahead of Belgium (an increase from 16 thousand to 17 thousand entries per year) and especially Sweden, which will see almost a doubling from less than 8 thousand to almost 14 thousand units annually.
Migration of Africans moving to Italy will always be especially Moroccans, but with a smaller margin of the current, from 40% to 30% in 2026-2030, from 20 thousand to 15 thousand units per year. Tunisian flow will go down considerably from 4 thousand units per year to just over a thousand. We will see an increase in the flow from Senegal (from 6 thousand to nearly 9 thousand entries per year), a slightly decrease in the Egyptian flow (however little under 5 thousand entries per year), a considerate increase in the Nigerian flow (from 3 thousand to 4 thousand entries per year). Around 2 thousand units per year will be the number of people flowing from Ghana and Ivory Coast; Somali migration flow will double as well. The number of migrants in Italy from Burkina Faso, Eritrea and Cameroon, as well as Ethiopia and Algeria will importantly increase. New entrants are likely to be from Togo, Guinea, Liberia and Congo.
Ultimately, the flow to sustain demographically from Africa every year is always oscillating around 6 units input per 10,000 inhabitants of the European Union, but with large differences between each countries. For example Spain will register in the future on average about 15-16 African citizens every year per a total of 10,000 inhabitants in their own country, while – one of the largest states in the Union – France will drop from 10 to 9 migrants per 10,000 per year. The UK will rise the number of immigrants from 7 to 8. In Italy the number of immigrants will be confirmed around the value of 8 people per 10,000. Only Germany will see lower levels; the entry into its territory will be about 3 African migrants per year for every 10,000 inhabitants; in other words at the same rate of demographic sustainability of Greece and Ireland, and the Netherlands.
Most of all, however, Malta will increase the annual flow of African migrants from the current 10 people per 10,000 to 17 per 10,000 inhabitants per year in 2026-2030. Behind Spain but before France, the UK and Italy, Belgium confirm around a perspective of 15 African migrants per year for every 10,000 inhabitants. Sweden will rise its migration inflows from the current less than 8 to more than 13 people in 2026-2030. Luxembourg continues to oscillate around 10. Conversely the following countries in the following list are below the average European reception (as well as Germany, Greece, Ireland and the Netherlands as mentioned before) Austria (which still grow from less than 5 per 10,000 to nearly 6 inputs per 10,000 population), Finland and Denmark (also growing over time, both for less than 3 per 10,000 to more than 4), Cyprus (which will never reach the 2 per year per 10,000 inhabitants Africans welcomed). Among the representatives of the Eastern European countries, all with very low rates, the Czech Republic has very low reception rates which itself will never reach even the value of a year in the African entry into their territory of 10,000 inhabitants already present.
Eventually, regarding the most significant migration flow, identified by convention as those superior to 5 thousand units per year, there are currently active ten migration flow from Africa to the European Union, and they will become 15 migration flows in 2026 to 2030, when the overall size of the flows will increase from 300 thousand migrants current (or slightly more) to almost 330 thousand.
Currently, we can distinguish four major streams originating from Morocco (flows to Spain, about 43 thousand units per year, to Italy about 20 thousand units per year, to France about 18 thousand, and from Belgium, 7 thousand), two from Senegal (from 8 thousand to 6 thousand admissions per year in Spain and in Italy). Are “preferred route” in particular the one directed to the United Kingdom from Nigeria and South Africa; and two more are defined as “proximity”: these are the only one not from North African Moroccan but from Algeria and Tunisia to France .
Considered the current context, in 2026-2030 flows from Morocco will reduce. Migrations flows from Senegal directed to France than to Italy and Spain, as well as from neighbouring Gambia to Spain will increase. Movements from Nigeria will start, not only towards the United Kingdom but also in the direction of Spain. Flows from nearby Cameroon will start moving to France. At the same time “flow of proximity” will disappear, or nearly so between Italy and Algeria and Tunisia-Italy-France (the only flows with big size from North Africa will be those from Morocco towards France and Italy, but especially in Spain, although not so massive as in the past). Flows from Ivory Coast to France and Mali to Spain will start growing. Finally stream from south Africa to the UK, although reducing its intensity will occur and will be joined to the neighbouring Zimbabwe. Finally, this flow will surpass the threshold of 5 thousand units per year from Somalia to Sweden.
Currently, four national flows with more than 5 thousand units per year have as final destination France and two of each Italy, Spain (including the Moroccan market for more than 40 thousand units per year) and the United Kingdom. According to the current situation and future estimates Germany has not and will not have any flow of 5 thousand units per year from African countries. Scandinavian countries will never have any African flow (neither Benelux) with the exception of Sweden which will have in 2026-2030 immigration from Somalia. On the opposite side, five large flows in Africa are likely to be directed towards Spain in 2026-2030 (in ranking we have: Morocco, Senegal, Gambia, Mali and Nigeria); four to France (from Morocco, Senegal, Ivory Coast and Cameroon); three towards the United Kingdom (from Nigeria, South Africa and Zimbabwe) and two to Italy (from Morocco and Senegal), in addition to the flow from Somalia to Sweden.
by Immigration Monitoring Department